Narendra Modi's Jana Chetana Rally in Kolkata, A smart piece of politics

Let's disect the speech to understand the objectivity

1) Mr. Modi even in his wild dreams does not see any seat or in extreme wild dream more than two seats.
2) He knows Mamata and Jaya will never be in same boat. Assuming extreme case when both gets 30 seats, LS 2014 is actually a 510 seat game.
3) Many who are above their 50's in Bengal always feel cheated by a) Jyoti Basu not being allowed to be CM b) Pranab Da not being made PM not once but twice. This group is about say 1 crore odd voters.
4)  Mr. Modi also knows that with extreme level of minority appeasement, Trade Unions and extremely unmanagable debt, it is impossible to carry out any development in Bengal. By the way for records state debt is 2 Lac Crores and interest is 28,000 crores. State income till last year was 28,000 crore, this year it is 41,000 crore. So you have only 13,000 crore to run the state.

Hence,
1) Talk about bellout of Bengal. I am not sure if pseudo intellects of Bengal understands how important is that bail out !
2) Take Pranab da into confidence to be invited and cooperated in union government after 2014
3) Try to get some percentage of vote of the Bengalis who feel cheated in Pranab Da issue
4) Give a Political Agenda for State BJP. It is now Mamta for CM for Modi for PM. With the He defined a clarity, separated national and state politics and laid a soft track for Mamata to join NDA should Jaya avoids it. Also it makes clear that without many seats it should not ask for accountability for growth. That's politically 10/10.

Brigade is a huge and massive ground and very few parties can afford a rally in Brigade. The decision of Selection of Brrigade itself was brave and turn out was quite decent for a zero presence party.

BJP will field Intellects like IPS officers, Celebrities in Bengal. So it is eyeing for 15% vote share which can be further accumulated by next state election to push Congress out and become 3rd player. Finally 2021 should see BJP as main opposition.

As Bengal is a cadre based politics, BJP will now get many cadres who will denounce CPM as it has no chance of growth and also Congress which is gone and finish in the state.

Technically therefore it's Win Win Situation for BJP. After this rally, biggest looser in Bengal will be Congress. Mark this comment, BJP will be 3rd in Vote Share this time in Bengal. 

Arvind Kejriwal and AAP Story Reminds Me Of The Island President Nasheed

The Image Tells the story. Rest is for you to decide! 

BJP's seat probability for LS2014: Compiled from Non BJP Ground Worker Across India

Many channels will jump into have their opinion poles with 2000 odd samples and then present their propaganda widely. Most of these data are not scientifically acquired. As you may already know I campaign for Mr. Narendra Modi and I am not associated with BJP. I am associated with various groups who dedicates their time on weekends for a brighter India. We organize sabha's, host meetings, do ddor to door campaigning for Mr. Modi. Our group is largely comprising of professionals  like doctors, engineers, doctorates, professors and so on. Our process of campaigning for Mr. Modi has brought us closer to voters. We know most of the voters of many constituencies by their name and can tell which house will vote whom.

Due to our effort, we have come in contact with various such groups working for Mr. Modi. Well we do not want to leave this country on the mercy of BJP and what it does for campaign. So we have collected a data sample for more than 2 lacks from almost all the states. Things are looking quite bright for BJP.

Remember this is no nonsense opinion pole. The data is sent by ground workers and bound to be true to about 80%.

I will surely post area wise data in couple of days, but for those who are curious to know how things stands for BJP, here is the summery of our finding.

Sample size 2,71,849( Two Lac Seventy One Thousand Eight Hundred Forty Nine).
Total groups shared their data 83.
Total Constituency these groups have covered so far:306

Andhra Pradesh=4
Assam=2
Bihar=18
CG=8
GOA=2
Gujrat=25
Haryana=5
Himachal=3
J&K=1
Jharkhand=7
Karnataka=21
Kerla=2
MP=25
Maharashtra=20
West Bengal=3
Uttar Pradesh=50
Uttarakhand=3
Tamil Nadu=2
Rajasthan=21
Punjab=9
Odisha=2
Delhi=5
======
Overall:238

I am sure every party must be doing it's own survey and it will be interesting to see how close they are with our data.

TOI Survey: Should BJP really worry?

I have canvassing experience of more than 4 elections. I conduct sabhas, galvanize youth, make documentary presentations through projectors and have an extensive network of voters. From my experience I can tell that no matter what media shows, they do not have any idea about how a campaign is done.

In loksabha, average voters par constituency is around 20 Lac. This contains several cast, religious groups,slums, housing colony. Every group has their own priority and problems. Most of these set of voters ( say 5% total voters of an area formsa group) has their own people raising voice for them. So one leader par group. These leaders have set of cadres with them. Out of these cadres also there are two or three groups looking after different aspect. Then these leaders are connected to village level leaders, village leaders are connected to block level leaders, blocks are connected through district level leaders. At district level there are many aspirants for the seats. Every group tries to pitch in their candidate. Those who does not get ticket turns hostile. Then there must be a coordination. Sabhas and then follow ups. Some of seasoned campaigners know which house will vote him. You can still buy votes in India with notes and promises. Urban India is no different.

So to create such a leadership chain in two months is not only impossible but impractical. AAP could have done well if they had decided to fight from say 30 constituencies, and putting their everything in winning them. Minus Kejriwal they are just an ordinary party. Kejriwal even with chopper can not go to every 300 constituency even if he wants.

 So right now it looks just another opportunity for some opportunists. Many will evacuate party and join their original party once list of candidates are out.
 
 Lastly about Delhi success and recent TOI poll.
In Delhi there are 7 LS seats. If you divide assembly seats to LS seats, BJP has won 5 where as AAP could manage Chandni Chawk and New Delhi. Chandni Chawk was earlier under Sibbal who has lost his position so people were looking for alternative which BJP does not have in CC. But in New Delhi, it of Arvind's area and he was active more than any BJP leaders. So AAP's got grand success in this two areas and have won 28 seats. Even among these BJP lost 8 seats under 2500 votes.

Now about TOI survey. In the eight cities, BJP currently holds only 2 seats of Ahmedbad. Rest of the cities LS seats belongs to other parties and BJP never had any strong hold in these constituencies. So taking a small sample from people who has traditionally never voted for BJP and trying to project it on national scale makes no sense. Even in such No-Sense sampling, Modi is clearly ahead. Which means People wants BJP even in places which are right now under different parties.

No stopping of BJP.  

BJP's New Bank Transaction Tax. A Genuine Great Thought

Many people are jumping into an opinion about this new proposal even before understanding the structure properly.

Statistics and economics are jargon that is difficult for common man to crack. So I thought I would put the proposal in a simple manner so that common man can understand as practical example!

First your argument of "Why nobody thought it?" Well, nobody thought that a car can be manufactured under 1 lac. 70 Years back nobody thought that smallest component of any object has the power to destroy the world. Before Apple nobody thought that a Mainframe computer be enclosed in a Radio like shape. Some one thought and rest is history. So just because something has not been tried early has no merit.

Now we shall go to The real mathematics. How would tax be used

1) A salaried Person: Earlier if a person was earning 10 Lac annually he would be paying 3 Lac tax. Now It will be 2000/-. But wait, what if he transfers the money to say his child studying somewhere? In the best possible case he can transfer entire 10 lacks ( not more than it) to his child or anybody. A tax of 2% will mean another 2000/-. So a salaried person would be paying 4,000/- at max instead of 3 lack.

Then how government would recover the rest say 2,90,000/-? Once somebody has an excess amount, he would either invest it in bank or would use it for purchase. If the money goes to bank, bank can utilize it for lending to sectors like manufacturing. A standard loan would mean 3% monthly interest rate which will generate  36% interest amount on this 2,90,000/- which is almost 10,000/-. for the year. The industry that the same money was lend would generate at least 6% profit out of which 3% has already gone to the bank. So 3% Net money will be generated. Which makes it another 10,000/-. To generate this profit atleast one person got to work? So govt. gets 4,000/-, money generated=20,000/-, job generated=1. 

2) A Business: 

a) If you were doing a  agency based business: for 100 Crore business( Annual), you would be earning 3 Crore ( 3% standard profit in agency business). Earlier you would have given a tax of 1 crore, now you would have to bear the cost as 2 crore. Why? Because in agency business you have to receive the money from client. No matter what you pass on to top level distributor, at 2% it is going to remain almost 2 crore only. But how he survives in business? Simple, by making the bottom line higher. A 1% increase in margin would mean he recovers his money. Where this 1% comes from? By eliminating this entire middle man from distributor system. 

So govt gets more, middle man eliminated, system is more transparent. 

He this man wants to give money for his children? He can at max spend 2 crore, so he will have to bear only 4 lack extra for a year.As complete expenditure is generally at the most 30% towards education or any other direct transfer, it would be as low as 1 lack in a year. 

But wait, what if the agency has 1 crore business with 3 lac income? With current system he will have 4 lac income and will give 2 lac tax. He still remains with 2 Lack. But if the same person wants to send money to his child? Mere four thousand extra in a year ( max).

But interestingly see in case 1, one job was created extra so his buyer will increase. Hence the same business will see a minimum 10% growth. In all calculation a small or big both businesses will earn extra.

b) If you are in a Loan based business: 

Many businesses are depended on direct or indirect loans. For instance a fruit seller takes a local loan of say 100/- at 3% at the time of purchasing the fruit. After selling he gets a margin of around 12%. Once he earns 112/-, he returns 103/- to lender and enjoys the 9/-. But this lending remains untraceable and mainly anonymous ( cash transaction). Once the proposed system is in place lender will directly has to give the amount to distributor of fruit seller. After selling the fruits once he returns the money to lender ( 103/-). Lender will have to bear a tax of 2/-. That makes this 3% earning to mere 1% earning. But as there is more money 1) and 2.b) will buy more fruit! So fruit vendor would be taking quick loan of say 200/- which will give lender 2/- income, fruit vendor 18/- income and government gets 5/- tax. This 5/- was never in your repository earlier.  Scale this to 100 crore , you have 5 crore extra!

So? Extra growth for fruit vendor, lot of extra money to government and little loss to lender.

Now assume that government decides  to spend 5% of this amount in infra projects. Around 2,50,000/- investment available which would never have been there! More job and the cycle continues which helps attain an arithmetic progression of growth that will ultimately be geometric.

3) Stock market:

This is the most important aspect to be scrutinized. In  stock market after you sell a share, you receive the entire money and that is not profit. So say if you has purchased 10 shares at 10/- each, it becomes 100/-. When the price is 12/- you sell it. So you earn 120/- Removing broker and other charges, you will get about 15/-. But tax you have to give about 2.5/-. 20% rise in share price is huge. Generally it's in range of even 5% in many occasions, and sometimes worst you sell for a loss. So this will be badly effected.

What? Any stock transaction needs Dmat account. Don't use BTT for DMat account. When money is transferred from any Dmat to main account, put a nominal yearly charge. How will such people benefit? Simple, they will be paying far lesser tax than existing. So the excess money again goes to market and the person remains better invested. 

I am Ph.D in Computer Science and frankly have no formal understanding in economics. So my analysis may not be completely accurate. Nonetheless it's always a good idea to at least clarify few things that we have understood.  A committee needs to be formed and this would change whole economics. My vote for the proposal.  

AAP impact to BJP:-A ground level prospect

I am an Entrepreneur, running my own business and have seen Golden India of 2003 to walk slowly to pathetic India that it is today!

I am also one of the founders of a group who spread awareness in Civic rights. 3 Months back we decided that India if at all had to recover, should have Mr. Modi as PM. It is to be noted that our group has played an important role in bringing awareness about wrong doing of BJP Govt. in Karnataka. Hence we can be considered apolitical group who has realized that Mr. Modi is the only candidate who fits in our dream of golden India.

Hence we started a program called "Sunday For Nation" to dedicate every Sunday to spread awareness about Mr. Modi. We were eight. We started visiting Talukas, villages, and every home. We conducted sabha, skits, awareness program. And have so far covered over 3 seats, almost every home. We are not associated with BJP. We spend from our pocket and sponsor our own program. The group is now grown to 83 professionals which contains 9 doctors, 6 Ph.D including myself, 30 professors, IT professionals. All well respected in their respected field without any political ambition.

Seeing our dedication, 7 such apolitical groups are formed accross Karnataka who are silently doing their job while BJP and Congress still sleeping and AAP in Consolidate mode. We almost know which house will vote for BJP and which will vote for Congress and which are undecided. After every sabha, two of our team are allotted to that village who then followup with these voters to try to convert, in the mean time prepare some local leadership ( apolitical) for the purpose.

So, I have some real ground level experience of conducting more than 51 sabhas and addressing over 1 Lack people through different sabhas.

Interestingly main stream media does not know ALPHABETS of Indian politics. In LS, cast plays a very crucial role. No matter what is your electoral agenda, SC prefers to follow their SC leader, Lingayet will follow Lingayets and so on. Every cast has it's village level leader and it's followers. They are in touch with block level leaders, who are in touch with district level leader. In district level, there are various groups in same party divided based on individual or cast or religion.

 So winning a seat means not only campaigning but channelizing through these entire leadership. Also the ego of the groups to be checked. For BJP or as I must technically put up that for Mr. Modi the unique advantage is that there are homogeneous followers. So these leadership chain entirely supports Mr. Modi and do give their 100% to campaign.  Thus our job has become quite easy.

Considering the fact that BJP and Congress are old parties, one needs at least a decade of service as cadre in these two parties before any significant political millage. So many of the frustrated ground leaders have joined AAP or are on the process. You would be surprised to know that the percentage of such joins are 2% from BJP 61% from Congress but rest are from BSP, JDS ( data of 17 seats in karnataka). So these joins has many aspirants par seat. The moment AAP declares it's candidate list, 2/3 rd of the members will evacuate and rejoin their respective parties as happens normally.

Even if it does not, finding the chain of leadership among all major voter groups, channelizing it, coordinating it is years of organizational effort. Mr. Yedurappa being a great election war horse had thought that his KGP would do wonders in state assembly elections. But it failed. Though it came second in 40 seats, it failed. Now consider that 60% of BJP and ready cadres were with him. Had that not being the case, he wouldn't even have got those 6 seats.

So now Yedurappa could curtail BJP votes, paving away for Congress. But here AAP has not being formed of ideology. So their work is more ground level. Add to that the success of Delhi was to a great deal depended on the campaigning of educated youth who had come from different places to Delhi. In April, many of these would have their examinations and due to vast geography will not be able to channelize the energy in one place.

Thus it stands no chance of doing any harm to BJP, either theoretically or practically. But it certainly has kept BJP workers on their toes and many groups like ours are tirelessly supporting Mr. Modi in Social Media, local Media and ground level.

 Now even though Congress central leadership is all too happy with AAP, in ground level core congress workers just hates AAP. BJP is not taking ground AAP workers so seriously and it has till date not featured in our canvassing. But Congress groundsmen feels cheated by this party. They feel their secular agenda is hijacked by AAP. In coming days you may see many see saws between these two parties.

So no matter what AAP says, so called political analysts says, poll says, it's already 243 for BJP. BJP can only gain from here and can't loose. But very interestingly from our data collected through our friends from different parts of India, Congress doesn't look like getting beyond 89. AAP has realistic chance of winning 7 seats and can extend upto 19 in which case Congress will be ending up with shocking number.

Most interestingly AAP's late attack on Mr. Modi, has been doing wonders for BJP.  

What Aam Aadmi Party is damaging

AAP started with Anna movement, got separated. It formed with Anti Corruption drive. AAP got momentum by damming Sheila Dixit government day out, and with slogan "AK for CM, Modi for PM". Janlokpal was their main agenda. They have popularize door to door campaigning and have marketed "Common Man" ideology better than anyone. Another big agenda: BJP-Congress all same.

Past Delhi elections, few things have changed. Unprecedented media coverage has highlighted the party and it rightly is going with it's national agenda. They formed the government and took some decisions in a quick time. It is another discussion of how such decisions are blank statistical manipulation.

Coming back to what happens now!

People from all over the country is joining AAP, donations are purring in. But interestingly large number of people getting associated with it.

There are now two type of Politics in India, people who hates Modi and  people who loves Modi.
Irrespective of decades of bad mouthing and propaganda nobody could dent this number of Modi lovers. And years of honest effort by BJP has also not significantly decreased the number of Modi haters.

These Modi haters were with Congress al along, because there were no alternative. But as Congress has completely lost the credibility, they will change the boats. Like in Bengal, congress supporters joining TMC.
So a large number of these haters will join AAP. If you look at AAP's new recruits and dissect it, you will get the proof.

Corruption is no more an issue after AAP joining hands with Congress and declaring that there will be no investigations against Sheila Dixit. Jan Lokpal is no issue.

Point to be remembered is AAP's Delhi success was attributed by a lot of passionate people for JLB. Many of the founders including Surojit Dasgupta have left the party. So AAP had a bondage in Delhi. Janlokpal. That bond is broken.

Now people joining AAP sees it as a change. A change in politics, common man politics. Note that no bond remains. All want to be part of the change.

AAP will divide the vote of Modi haters. BJP even if does nothing will get 32% average vote in about 240 seats. So to beat it, a party needs atleast 35% share. Divide 68% among Congress, AAP, SP or any third party! You know the equation.

Modi, the greatest strategist of all time must be so happy and smiling with this development! Mark my words, he wouldn't utter a single word against AAP ever.  But AAP will attack Modi to handover few of it's own undecided supporters. Nobody has observed that Modi doesn't utter a word against AAP. Everybody including media is ending up playing in hands of Modi.
 Few fools in Congress are misleading Mr. Gandhi to believe that AAP will finish BJP! Does anybody have doubt anymore of what's going on here?