Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Narendra Modi's Jana Chetana Rally in Kolkata, A smart piece of politics

Let's disect the speech to understand the objectivity

1) Mr. Modi even in his wild dreams does not see any seat or in extreme wild dream more than two seats.
2) He knows Mamata and Jaya will never be in same boat. Assuming extreme case when both gets 30 seats, LS 2014 is actually a 510 seat game.
3) Many who are above their 50's in Bengal always feel cheated by a) Jyoti Basu not being allowed to be CM b) Pranab Da not being made PM not once but twice. This group is about say 1 crore odd voters.
4)  Mr. Modi also knows that with extreme level of minority appeasement, Trade Unions and extremely unmanagable debt, it is impossible to carry out any development in Bengal. By the way for records state debt is 2 Lac Crores and interest is 28,000 crores. State income till last year was 28,000 crore, this year it is 41,000 crore. So you have only 13,000 crore to run the state.

Hence,
1) Talk about bellout of Bengal. I am not sure if pseudo intellects of Bengal understands how important is that bail out !
2) Take Pranab da into confidence to be invited and cooperated in union government after 2014
3) Try to get some percentage of vote of the Bengalis who feel cheated in Pranab Da issue
4) Give a Political Agenda for State BJP. It is now Mamta for CM for Modi for PM. With the He defined a clarity, separated national and state politics and laid a soft track for Mamata to join NDA should Jaya avoids it. Also it makes clear that without many seats it should not ask for accountability for growth. That's politically 10/10.

Brigade is a huge and massive ground and very few parties can afford a rally in Brigade. The decision of Selection of Brrigade itself was brave and turn out was quite decent for a zero presence party.

BJP will field Intellects like IPS officers, Celebrities in Bengal. So it is eyeing for 15% vote share which can be further accumulated by next state election to push Congress out and become 3rd player. Finally 2021 should see BJP as main opposition.

As Bengal is a cadre based politics, BJP will now get many cadres who will denounce CPM as it has no chance of growth and also Congress which is gone and finish in the state.

Technically therefore it's Win Win Situation for BJP. After this rally, biggest looser in Bengal will be Congress. Mark this comment, BJP will be 3rd in Vote Share this time in Bengal. 

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