Tuesday, January 7, 2014

AAP impact to BJP:-A ground level prospect

I am an Entrepreneur, running my own business and have seen Golden India of 2003 to walk slowly to pathetic India that it is today!

I am also one of the founders of a group who spread awareness in Civic rights. 3 Months back we decided that India if at all had to recover, should have Mr. Modi as PM. It is to be noted that our group has played an important role in bringing awareness about wrong doing of BJP Govt. in Karnataka. Hence we can be considered apolitical group who has realized that Mr. Modi is the only candidate who fits in our dream of golden India.

Hence we started a program called "Sunday For Nation" to dedicate every Sunday to spread awareness about Mr. Modi. We were eight. We started visiting Talukas, villages, and every home. We conducted sabha, skits, awareness program. And have so far covered over 3 seats, almost every home. We are not associated with BJP. We spend from our pocket and sponsor our own program. The group is now grown to 83 professionals which contains 9 doctors, 6 Ph.D including myself, 30 professors, IT professionals. All well respected in their respected field without any political ambition.

Seeing our dedication, 7 such apolitical groups are formed accross Karnataka who are silently doing their job while BJP and Congress still sleeping and AAP in Consolidate mode. We almost know which house will vote for BJP and which will vote for Congress and which are undecided. After every sabha, two of our team are allotted to that village who then followup with these voters to try to convert, in the mean time prepare some local leadership ( apolitical) for the purpose.

So, I have some real ground level experience of conducting more than 51 sabhas and addressing over 1 Lack people through different sabhas.

Interestingly main stream media does not know ALPHABETS of Indian politics. In LS, cast plays a very crucial role. No matter what is your electoral agenda, SC prefers to follow their SC leader, Lingayet will follow Lingayets and so on. Every cast has it's village level leader and it's followers. They are in touch with block level leaders, who are in touch with district level leader. In district level, there are various groups in same party divided based on individual or cast or religion.

 So winning a seat means not only campaigning but channelizing through these entire leadership. Also the ego of the groups to be checked. For BJP or as I must technically put up that for Mr. Modi the unique advantage is that there are homogeneous followers. So these leadership chain entirely supports Mr. Modi and do give their 100% to campaign.  Thus our job has become quite easy.

Considering the fact that BJP and Congress are old parties, one needs at least a decade of service as cadre in these two parties before any significant political millage. So many of the frustrated ground leaders have joined AAP or are on the process. You would be surprised to know that the percentage of such joins are 2% from BJP 61% from Congress but rest are from BSP, JDS ( data of 17 seats in karnataka). So these joins has many aspirants par seat. The moment AAP declares it's candidate list, 2/3 rd of the members will evacuate and rejoin their respective parties as happens normally.

Even if it does not, finding the chain of leadership among all major voter groups, channelizing it, coordinating it is years of organizational effort. Mr. Yedurappa being a great election war horse had thought that his KGP would do wonders in state assembly elections. But it failed. Though it came second in 40 seats, it failed. Now consider that 60% of BJP and ready cadres were with him. Had that not being the case, he wouldn't even have got those 6 seats.

So now Yedurappa could curtail BJP votes, paving away for Congress. But here AAP has not being formed of ideology. So their work is more ground level. Add to that the success of Delhi was to a great deal depended on the campaigning of educated youth who had come from different places to Delhi. In April, many of these would have their examinations and due to vast geography will not be able to channelize the energy in one place.

Thus it stands no chance of doing any harm to BJP, either theoretically or practically. But it certainly has kept BJP workers on their toes and many groups like ours are tirelessly supporting Mr. Modi in Social Media, local Media and ground level.

 Now even though Congress central leadership is all too happy with AAP, in ground level core congress workers just hates AAP. BJP is not taking ground AAP workers so seriously and it has till date not featured in our canvassing. But Congress groundsmen feels cheated by this party. They feel their secular agenda is hijacked by AAP. In coming days you may see many see saws between these two parties.

So no matter what AAP says, so called political analysts says, poll says, it's already 243 for BJP. BJP can only gain from here and can't loose. But very interestingly from our data collected through our friends from different parts of India, Congress doesn't look like getting beyond 89. AAP has realistic chance of winning 7 seats and can extend upto 19 in which case Congress will be ending up with shocking number.

Most interestingly AAP's late attack on Mr. Modi, has been doing wonders for BJP.  

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