I have canvassing experience of more than 4 elections. I conduct sabhas, galvanize youth, make documentary presentations through projectors and have an extensive network of voters. From my experience I can tell that no matter what media shows, they do not have any idea about how a campaign is done.
In loksabha, average voters par constituency is around 20 Lac. This contains several cast, religious groups,slums, housing colony. Every group has their own priority and problems. Most of these set of voters ( say 5% total voters of an area formsa group) has their own people raising voice for them. So one leader par group. These leaders have set of cadres with them. Out of these cadres also there are two or three groups looking after different aspect. Then these leaders are connected to village level leaders, village leaders are connected to block level leaders, blocks are connected through district level leaders. At district level there are many aspirants for the seats. Every group tries to pitch in their candidate. Those who does not get ticket turns hostile. Then there must be a coordination. Sabhas and then follow ups. Some of seasoned campaigners know which house will vote him. You can still buy votes in India with notes and promises. Urban India is no different.
So to create such a leadership chain in two months is not only impossible but impractical. AAP could have done well if they had decided to fight from say 30 constituencies, and putting their everything in winning them. Minus Kejriwal they are just an ordinary party. Kejriwal even with chopper can not go to every 300 constituency even if he wants.
So right now it looks just another opportunity for some opportunists. Many will evacuate party and join their original party once list of candidates are out.
Lastly about Delhi success and recent TOI poll.
In Delhi there are 7 LS seats. If you divide assembly seats to LS seats, BJP has won 5 where as AAP could manage Chandni Chawk and New Delhi. Chandni Chawk was earlier under Sibbal who has lost his position so people were looking for alternative which BJP does not have in CC. But in New Delhi, it of Arvind's area and he was active more than any BJP leaders. So AAP's got grand success in this two areas and have won 28 seats. Even among these BJP lost 8 seats under 2500 votes.
Now about TOI survey. In the eight cities, BJP currently holds only 2 seats of Ahmedbad. Rest of the cities LS seats belongs to other parties and BJP never had any strong hold in these constituencies. So taking a small sample from people who has traditionally never voted for BJP and trying to project it on national scale makes no sense. Even in such No-Sense sampling, Modi is clearly ahead. Which means People wants BJP even in places which are right now under different parties.
No stopping of BJP.
In loksabha, average voters par constituency is around 20 Lac. This contains several cast, religious groups,slums, housing colony. Every group has their own priority and problems. Most of these set of voters ( say 5% total voters of an area formsa group) has their own people raising voice for them. So one leader par group. These leaders have set of cadres with them. Out of these cadres also there are two or three groups looking after different aspect. Then these leaders are connected to village level leaders, village leaders are connected to block level leaders, blocks are connected through district level leaders. At district level there are many aspirants for the seats. Every group tries to pitch in their candidate. Those who does not get ticket turns hostile. Then there must be a coordination. Sabhas and then follow ups. Some of seasoned campaigners know which house will vote him. You can still buy votes in India with notes and promises. Urban India is no different.
So to create such a leadership chain in two months is not only impossible but impractical. AAP could have done well if they had decided to fight from say 30 constituencies, and putting their everything in winning them. Minus Kejriwal they are just an ordinary party. Kejriwal even with chopper can not go to every 300 constituency even if he wants.
So right now it looks just another opportunity for some opportunists. Many will evacuate party and join their original party once list of candidates are out.
Lastly about Delhi success and recent TOI poll.
In Delhi there are 7 LS seats. If you divide assembly seats to LS seats, BJP has won 5 where as AAP could manage Chandni Chawk and New Delhi. Chandni Chawk was earlier under Sibbal who has lost his position so people were looking for alternative which BJP does not have in CC. But in New Delhi, it of Arvind's area and he was active more than any BJP leaders. So AAP's got grand success in this two areas and have won 28 seats. Even among these BJP lost 8 seats under 2500 votes.
Now about TOI survey. In the eight cities, BJP currently holds only 2 seats of Ahmedbad. Rest of the cities LS seats belongs to other parties and BJP never had any strong hold in these constituencies. So taking a small sample from people who has traditionally never voted for BJP and trying to project it on national scale makes no sense. Even in such No-Sense sampling, Modi is clearly ahead. Which means People wants BJP even in places which are right now under different parties.
No stopping of BJP.
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